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The Strong Keep Getting Stronger

The Strong Keep Getting Stronger

Did you know that only five counties (Dublin, Cork, Derry, Tyrone, and Mayo) have been represented in the last six NFL Division 1 finals, two counties have shared those six titles? No? Well, now you do.

This little morsel of information gives us some insight into what is happening at the top table of intercounty Gaelic football.

Cork won the three-in-a-row of national leagues between 2010 and 2012 and now Dublin have replicated that feat, but in a much more convincing fashion.

Cork's average winning margin in their three-in-a-row was 4.66, while Dublin have blitzed the opposition with an average winning margin of 9 points in their trio of triumphs.

However, it's what happened to the sides after these league finals that's of interest.

Cork flattered to deceive, and underachieved. Does the same fate await Jim Gavin's men, especially after last year's naivety against the Dubs? Maybe not.

Both sides went on to win the All-Ireland after their first National League victories, and then the graph tailed off - only spiking for the remaining league titles.

Let's examine Cork's recent half-decade of top class football.

They have not managed to make an All-Ireland final since their narrow one-point win over Down in 2010.

Indeed, they have not made it into the last four since 2012 when eventual champions Donegal beat them (0-16 to 1-11).

Last year they produced a poor campaign, having promised so much in the league – a campaign bookmarked by the destruction of Kerry in Tralee.

However, come summertime they were annihilated (0-24 to 0-12) by Kerry in the last Pairc Ui Chaoimh Munster final before its planned renovation, before being eliminated by Mayo (1-19 to 2-15) in the quarter-finals. Another case of so close, yet so far away.

Yet Cork are one of the more dominant teams in the country when it comes to dining out at the top table, only to do so with the shadow of their neighbours hanging over them.

They are both well and truly part of an elite club, one which has been fortified by the introduction of the Qualifier system in 2001.

Qualifiers creating elites

One of the criticisms thrown at the Qualifier system is that it has made the strong even stronger.

We think that, in its 14-year existence, the Qualifier system has produced just two success stories: Fermanagh in 2004 and Wexford in 2008.

Fermanagh were knocked out of the 2004 Ulster championship at the quarter-final stage, by Tyrone, before bringing Mayo to a replay in the All-Ireland semi-final, eventually losing 1-8 to 0-13. They haven't come close to these heights since.

In 2008, the 'Yellow bellies' from Wexford were dismantled by Dublin in the Leinster final: 3-23 to 0-9. They regrouped to embark on a dramatic odyssey before running aground against Tyrone in the semi-final, defeated by 1-14 to 0-23. They, too, haven't come close to these heights since.

The 'back door' was introduced under the guise of giving the weaker counties more football. The unforeseen result, however, is that it has helped create an extremely elitist system in allowing the stronger counties a chance to right any earlier championship shock.

Nowadays there's less shock and more 'meh' to the championship. It has become predictable (disclaimer: this blog post drops no hints to FundMyClub.ie entrants).

Since 2011, only six counties have been represented in the last four of the All-Ireland football championship: Dublin, Kerry, Donegal, Cork, Mayo, and Tyrone.

As an aside, national league Division 1 football is even more elitist with just six counties represented at the semi-final stage since 2010, with Derry replacing Kerry from the championship sextet.

The first campaign with the new qualifier system - 2001 - should have raised some red flags.

Galway claimed the All-Ireland having lost the Connacht semi-final to Roscommon. They did so by getting revenge on the Rossies in the All-Ireland quarter-final en route to beating Meath in that year's decider.

Since Galway's last All-Ireland title, Tyrone (2005, 2008), Kerry (2006, 2009) and Cork (2010) have all lifted Sam Maguire having lost in their provincial championships - so much for helping the weaker counties.

The 'back door' was introduced 14 seasons ago – since then Kerry have made the semi-final stage 12 times, only missing out in 2010 and 2012. Cork and Dublin have both featured in eight of these semi-final weekends.

This is the business end of the season and it's turning into a VIP section as the strong get stronger.

All-Ireland semi-finalists since 2001:

2001 – Galway, Derry, Meath, Kerry
2002 – Kerry, Cork, Armagh, Dublin
2003 – Kerry, Tyrone, Armagh, Donegal
2004 – Mayo, Fermanagh, Derry, Kerry
2005 – Kerry, Cork, Tyrone, Armagh
2006 – Kerry, Cork, Mayo, Dublin
2007 – Cork, Meath, Dublin, Kerry
2008 – Kerry, Cork, Wexford, Tyrone
2009 – Cork, Tyrone, Kerry, Meath

2010 – All-Ireland champions: Cork

All-Ireland semi-finals:
Cork 1-15, Dublin 1-14
Down 1-16, Kildare 1-14
Division 1 NFL final:
Cork 1-17, Mayo 0-12

2011 – All-Ireland champions: Dublin

All-Ireland semi-finals:
Kerry 1-20, Mayo 1-11
Dublin 0-8, Donegal 0-6

Division 1 NFL final:
Cork 0-21, Dublin 2-14

2012 – All-Ireland champions: Donegal

All-Ireland semi-finals:
Donegal 0-16, Cork 1-11
Mayo 0-19, Dublin 0-16
Division 1 NFL final:
Cork 2-10, Mayo 0-11

2013 – All-Ireland champions: Dublin

All-Ireland semi-finals:
Mayo 1-16, Tyrone 0-13
Dublin 3-18, Kerry 3-11
Division 1 NFL final:
Dublin 0-18, Tyrone 0-17

2014 - All-Ireland champions: Kerry

All-Ireland semi-finals:
Kerry 3-16, Mayo 3-13
Donegal 3-14, Dublin 0-17
Division 1 NFL final:
Dublin 3-19, Derry 1-10

2015 - All-Ireland champions: ?????

Division 1 NFL final:
Dublin 1-21, Cork 2-7